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June 3rd, 2011 
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According to statistics, the Spanish unemployment rate has risen to 21.29%, the highest among industrialized countries. The picture shows people lined up outside an employment agency. Xinhua News Agency
From China and the euro zone’s manufacturing PMI data, the housing price index in the United States, to Australia’s GDP data, the world’s major economies, recent economic indicators singing “demotion.”
With the major national economic indicators
beginning of this year’s trend of improvement from the sudden shift in the doldrums, again on the world economic growth, “wall”, and is about to hit a new wave of financial crisis, saying the international community continue to ferment. But some analysts believe that the so-called “double dip”, said a careful look at the global economy stabilize in the near future there are still possible.
Anniversary of the economic recovery remains a serious problem
Decline in U.S. home prices over the “Great Depression” period
Wall Street economists have recently
exceptionally busy, busy down the U.S. GDP, employment and other indicators to measure economic growth. U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter of just 1.8%, only half the expected six months ago. In addition, due to strong earthquakes in Japan in March led to supply chain disruptions, after eye-catching performance of the U.S. manufacturing sector growth rate also slowed down more than a year slowest level. Yesterday, the U.S. Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index released in April from 60.4% to 53.5% last month, to September 2009 the lowest since.
The U.S. housing market has shown clear signs of second bottom, below even the most urban housing prices since the 2008 financial crisis, the lowest point to calculate the peak years of decline in 05/06 about 33%, even more than the “big Depression “period of decline 31%. Data released Tuesday showed U.S. housing prices in major cities in March 2006 set the lowest since the U.S. housing bubble burst. 20 large cities, home prices in 18 cities than fall, up 3.6% year on year decline, many urban real estate prices have dropped to the lowest point since the crisis began. Since the S & P/Case – Shiller index covers 80% of the U.S. housing market, the report confirmed “the second bottom in house prices has covered most of the region.”
The United States with the largest circulation newspaper “USA Today” published article says that two years into the U.S. economic recovery. By historical standards, at this stage should be a strong economic expansion and substantial employment growth stage, especially considering the formal end of June 2009 the U.S. Great Depression gravity. But this time different. This does not appear on the 70′s and the severe economic decline after the end of 1980, strong growth, the recovery is more like the early 90s and 2001, rebounded slightly after a mild recession.
The general deterioration of the Japanese economy after the earthquake
Natural disasters will be fully presented the second quarter
Frequent international rating agencies recently launched an attack on Japan, after following Fitch, Moody’s financial situation in Japan once again issued a warning, and Japan’s sovereign credit rating on negative watch list.
3 month’s earthquake and tsunami tearing industry supply chain, as consumers tighten spending, leading to economic contraction in Japan’s situation in the first quarter than expected, has fallen into its third recession in a decade.
Cabinet Office said gross domestic product in the first quarter of this year (GDP) shrinking 0.9% in the previous quarter, nearly double the 0.5% decline economists forecast. After the adult rate of conversion is down 3% in the fourth quarter of last year, then decline by 3.7% than the 1.9% economists had expected a more severe (GDP contraction for two consecutive quarters, usually defined as a recession).
Originally due to deflation in the Japanese economy and consumer spending weak and under pressure, we must rely on exports to sustain growth, in March of the impact of natural disasters on the economic downturn as worse. Daiwa Institute of Research survey of analysts showed a forecast, the Japanese economy may continue to shrink the second quarter until the second half of the supply of breakage after the start of relaxation and reconstruction, will rebound.
A senior economist at Daiwa Institute of Research Hiroshi Watanabe, said: “The negative impact of natural disasters on the economy overall will be presented in the second quarter, this recession may be deep, but it was too short.”
Debt crisis continues to deepen Europe
Greek EU aid urgent consultations
new program
European debt crisis “worst-hit country” Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and other countries is difficult to improve the economic and financial situation within the EU due to European debt crisis has worsened, making the overall economic downturn in the euro area the short term is difficult to change the situation.
Euro zone manufacturing data released on Wednesday showed the euro zone manufacturing expanded at fastest rate in May the biggest drop since two and a half, fell to 54.6%, 58% in April.
Global credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service announced the same day, will be Greece’s sovereign credit rating from B1 further reduced to Caa1, and the outlook continues to be designated as “negative.” Moody’s said in a statement released the same day, Greece will have to eventually resolve by restructuring their debt problems.
Present, the EU member states finance officials met in Vienna to prepare the development of new programs to help debt-ridden Greece, face talks between Germany and the European Central Bank is an important difference, that private investors should share the pain relief of Greece, Although the softening of the position of Germany reached a new program to usher in the glimmer of hope, but the assistance program is still hard to implement.
Learned that the new program elements, including the Greek additional 30 to 35 billion euros loan, but with very strict conditions, including further fiscal tightening to speed up privatization of state-owned enterprises, the tax system and the external agencies involved in state-owned private the regulatory process and to promote the Greek government bonds held by private investors, “voluntary” debt limit extension.
Experts believe that to accept the Greek government aid program is the only way out. But the Greek domestic parties are still many differences between this program and eventually a compromise is not easy because the program than the Greek government recently proposed more stringent austerity program.
New rescue package may solve the urgent needs of Greece, but also through substantive reforms aimed at fiscal consolidation, as the Greek economy’s long-term basis for stable development. But the further tightening of financial and other assistance to harsh conditions may cause a serious recession, the premise of the Greek economy worse, only make the Greek debt even more remote, and ultimately may be forced onto the road of debt restructuring.
Emerging economies are suffering too
Slowdown in economic growth and India
In the developed economies face a new round of economic cooling, the emerging economies are also facing economic problems.
According to the Chinese Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released a report, China’s manufacturing production and marketing of measuring the overall economic level of PMI index was 52.0% in May compared with April down 0.9%, new orders and production indexes were higher than April fell 1.7% and 0.4%, reflecting further growth in the manufacturing sector slowed down the scale of the trend. The slowdown in China, “Japanese Economic News” analysis said the excess liquidity and the general policy against inflation, China’s manufacturing sector experienced rapid economic development entities, some resistance. Cost growth, environmental degradation and the loans made trade barriers to international trade competitiveness decline, orders for large losses. In addition, analysts say China has recently suffered a severe drought and the power supply crisis has led to increased production costs, manufacturing and services production was inhibited.
Asia-Pacific economic growth in other countries are also slowing. Australian data released Wednesday by floods and other disasters, the country’s economy shrank 1.2% in the first quarter, setting the largest quarterly decline in 20 years. India on Tuesday announced first-quarter economic growth was 7.8%, less than 8.3% the previous quarter and 9.4% over the same period last year. South Korea’s industrial output in April unexpectedly shrunk 1.5%. Brazil, South Africa, facing the pressure of excessive growth of inflation.
Analysts said the global economy “slam the brakes”
Is “comprehensive accumulation of various disasters,” the results
The global economy this year, “slam the brakes”, some analysts said it was “comprehensive accumulation of various disasters,” the results, including some unexpected factors. Goldman Sachs analyst 扎克潘德尔 that the Japanese earthquake to hit the global manufacturing supply chain than expected, based on the U.S. economy even shocks. In addition, the delay can not solve the debt crisis in Europe, but also delays in the advanced industrial countries, economic growth and confidence in the financial market disturbance.
However, the Research Center of Tsinghua University, Senior Fellow, China-US relations, Zhou that the current global economic slowdown, is still not second bottom. Outstanding performance in the global economic decline in Japan, but the second half of the Japanese economy will be better for post-disaster reconstruction. South Korea, “Chosun Ilbo,” said the EU as long as the debt quickly and properly resolve the crisis, the financial market chaos can be contained to some extent. In addition, if China can control the growth of inflation based on the gradual lifting of the “steps” can lead regional and global economic recovery. Newspaper roundup
5 月 global stock market performance (as of May 30)
Cumulative decline in the stock market
States
FTSE 100 Index 2.1%
The French CAC40 index of 4%
Germany DAX30 index 4.7%
The U.S. the Dow 2.9%
U.S. S & P 500 Index 2.3%
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index 1.6%
Australian stock index 2.4%
China Shanghai Composite Index 5.77%
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